2022-05-09

2022-05-09 01:31 am

TNL (The New Liberals)

TNL (The New Liberals)

Website: https://tnl.net.au/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TNL_Australia
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tnloz/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tnlaustralia/

TNL are a new party for the 2022 election formed by Victor Kline. They describe themselves as a party of change and an alternative to corporate corrupt politicans. In fact they’re essentially a centrist party trying to achieve the positioning and momentum that have been taken by various Teal Independents this election. They are also registered with the colour teal, leading to not a little confusion and hilarity in branding.

They initially registered under the name “The New Liberals” as a protest against what they saw as the Liberal Party not holding liberal values. This is a tedious old debate, in my mind, and ended up bringing yet another round of arguments over whether the party wanted to use the word “Liberal” disingenuously to pick up confused voters on the Senate ballot. I won’t relitigate the entire debate here, but since ‘liberals for forests’ in 2002, the tactic has been used with greater and lesser extent and intent to harvest votes, with the pinnacle of success being David Leyonhjelm’s 2013 Senate seat for the Liberal Democrats after drawing column A in NSW.

Amusingly, TNL are convinced that the new party name rules are targeted specifically at their own party, rather than an agreement between the Liberals and Labor that the DLP and Lib Dems (among others) have caused voting issues enough times off the back of using conflicting names and had finally got everyone to agree to remove the loophole.

Victor Kline has become mildly famous in auspol circles for spouting off absolute nonsense about his party’s election chances, including an infamous tweet predicting that the 2028 federal election would have TNL as the party of government and the Greens as the party of opposition.


Party Analysis

TNL’s thing is basically the suite of socially liberal policies circulating around all the centrist and centre left parties at present. They’re for climate action, want a Federal ICAC (with teeth), a jobs guarantee, and tax reform.

In terms of the collective climate policies, TNL want net-zero by 2030. They also are using a LOT of war imagery in respect of how they want to tackle climate change. They want no new coal or gas mining, local renewable energy grids with batteries, 100% electric rail, geothermal energy (interestingly this is the first time I’ve heard geothermal spruiked in a while. It was all the rage a decade or two back), more aerial water bombers (I presume they mean buy our own sky cranes, as a lot of the smaller fleet are already ours. We mostly loan the big stuff from California). They want all new vehicles from 2030 to be EVs, a wider charging network, stamp duty exemptions for EVs and ICE car buybacks, and the federal fleet cars to be converted as soon as possible. They want to ban live exports, protect native species, increase trees, protect koala habitat, etc. Honestly after reading so many centre socially liberal platforms, there’s nothing particularly new here. Net-zero dates are the major difference between the various platforms, and 2030 is one of the shorter timelines.

TNL want a retrospective ICAC with teeth (TM). In fact, they want it to have powers even beyond the NSW ICAC’s wildest dreams, being a full court process with a judge and jury trial, rather than a set of recommendations to be passed on to the DPP for prosecution. In my view this is far more excessive than is necessary; an advisory commission on investigating corruption is significantly different to a body that has the ability to prosecute. Also in responsibility for politicians policies, TNL want them all to take a 20% paycut and reduced super, and also adopt the entire Jenkins report suggestions into a Parliamentary Code of Conduct. Oh and term limits of a max of 12 years for all politicians. I’m boggled by this, as 12 years severely closes the generational memory pass on for politicians. I’m not against making sure there is generational change among politicians! I just think 12 years is probably too short a max length, especially to allow your PM and ministry to have relevant experience.

They also want real time donation disclosure and oh my god a complete ban on “major political advertising” during election campaigns. “We would prohibit mass media advertising via radio, tv, print and online advertising, social media, postal advertising, robot or personal phone calls, paying endorsers and influencers and any form of billboard advertising” and only allow flyers, doorknocking and other in-person campaigning (along with websites). Look. This is ridiculous. I am not opposed to stronger rules about what is allowed in political advertising, but this would be even more counterproductive. Essentially this proposal would reduce any party awareness among the general community down to current parliamentary parties, and make it almost impossible for anyone to communicate their election platform in more than one or two slogans and platitudes. Low information voters would have even less information. No.

There’s a proposal for a Job Guarantee Scheme which is for full time employment for everyone who wants it, facilitated by the government. These always feel a bit utopian to me (what if jobs in your skill set aren’t around? Or in your area?), but offering real jobs not work for the dole is a good start.

TNL also want better treatment of “aged citizens” both in aged care and outside it, to make it “the best in the world”. No details on how or the costs of this, however. There is also a “wisdom retention” policy, which is a Council of Elders for OLD PEOPLE, a “body of living national treasures that will help guide government policy”. I’m going to sigh with frustration here – this is not a constituency as unheard as the Voice to Parliament would be, and I really have no interest to pushing for this ahead of Uluru progress.

The refugee policy is an end to mandatory detention and offshore detention, but also still is a “stop the boats” policy. TNL also suggest more refugees in the country on farms “to revive dying towns”. I’m unsure on the percentage of refugees who are trained farmers, but I cannot imagine it is as high as TNL seem to believe – quite often it is highly trained individuals who need their qualifications (whether professional or trade) recognised. There’s also a proposal for a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to help investigate and repair some of the damage our policies have caused, which is a policy I’d like to see but doubt would happen.

In terms of big Constitution policies, TNL want a Bill of Rights, a Republic, Indigenous Recognition in the Constitution, and lowering the voting age to 16. They want full adoption of Uluru Statement from the Heart and treaty negotiations with every nation (yes all 500+, for ‘fairness’).

In other First Nations policies they want Raise the Age, get rid of Indue cards, improve prison rates, more work on Deaths in Custody, more input on mining leases, and the policy I always find SO paternal, “arrange more employment in environment and flora and fauna for First Nations people in their community! Use their traditional knowledge!” Look, if there are reasons for ranger jobs in an area, sure, and yes we should be relying more on traditional knowledge for things like burns and regeneration, but those are NOT the only jobs needed or wanted by First Nations people. It’s super condescending to keep pigeonholing them in the jobs you want to offer in these policies (especially when what I see a lot of call in the news for is more education and healthcare on country, with associated jobs).

In terms of healthcare, there is more support for the NDIS and better service delivery of the program, higher Medicare rebates for GP visits, more early intervention and screening healthcare, more funding for mental health on Medicare, and funding for “obesity related diseases”. Pretty standard. Also they would like to future-proof for future pandemics.

Support for the ABC (SBS not mentioned) and more funding for a local arts industry. Also there’s a media policy that looks like the “break up Murdoch” stuff spelled out, and strongly dislikes think tanks and research institutes for being too partisan.

TNL are into Modern Monetary Theory, which I am familiar with but could not explain to you. Basically they want us to spend more money as we can always print more. They also want a new government owned bank. Taxation is about taxing multinationals and large businesses more money, with no more specifics than that, on the basis that the scale of money that could be recovered there exceeds any quibbling over other tax rates.

Centrelink pay rates are to be doubled (so this would be $88 a day I think), along with providing carers a living wage. Also no sequestered payment cards like Indue.

In terms of education policies, they want to decrease funding for private schools, want to put heavier restrictions over how education funds can be spent (and want them spent in the same year, a policy every public service agency is howling how awful it is right now), increase to teacher’s salaries, more funding for preschool, your first uni degree to be free, and more money for university research.

Foreign affairs and aid policies are a lot of motherhood statements, really, but focused around “we are part of the Asian region”. They work really hard not to take a position on China. They also want us to spend a lot more on foreign aid (funded by taxing multinationals), particularly in our region. Also in terms of defence, we should rely less on the US and form a defence pact with Indonesia (TNL are oddly into working with Indonesia, it’s been called out in a number of policies). They also want better navy acquisitions as our first line of defence (small subs and air support). Finally, they want parliament to hold the power to declare war, not the prime minister (look I see the symbolic nature of this, but I have to say I always doubt that this change will alter anything, and has the downside of needing to call back both houses if you need to make a call quickly).

Law and justice policies look like they’ve been written by lawyers (shocking given Victor Kline, I know). TNL specifically call out reforming immigration and family law systems to reach solutions faster. This includes a 50/50 community property split in all divorces to decrease litigation (I can see some downsides on this and I can CERTAINLY see it being unpopular). They also want better funding for legal aid.

In water policies they want more flow through the Murray-Darling system, more water conservation, phasing out water-intensive crops, and the end of trading in water licences.

Finally we have a couple of rather petty culture war issues.

The Australia Day policy is “move it to 1 January” (this is a terrible suggestion given it is already a public holiday and half the country is hung over/sleeping in) and introduce a Reconciliation Day holiday in May nationally for the 1967 referendum. Here’s a suggestion – let’s delay this until the NEXT round of referendums and choose a date together.

There’s a policy proposing we change the national anthem, and I’m sorry to inform you that TNL decided to take the worst of all options and retain the tune but change the lyrics. The lyrics they’re proposing feel patronising, like they’d date in about 30 seconds and realistically already feel dated. If you care, it’s the Judith Durham rewrite.

Is this party trying to kill me?

No, TNL don’t have any deadly policies in their platform.

Is this party trying to harm me?


Only in terms of how hard I roll my eyes. TNL personalities spend a lot of time clowning on social media. Their actual policies didn’t appear to have any unexploded bombs.

Conclusion:

Look, this is a pretty standard socially liberal centrist policy set that is quite uneven in detail. There’s not a huge lot in here to pick out compared to the pack – probably the main thing is the MOST powerful ICAC policy I’ve seen, that is extensive enough that I do feel it’s into overreach. The old people voice to parliament made me chuckle as well. They also are prosecuting a handful of culture war policies over the national anthem and Australia Day, but neither of their suggestions are ones that I’ve seen wide acceptance or liking for. Finally, TNL have the most bizarrely broad “no election advertising” policy of the whole campaign. I really don’t feel it would work out the way they expect and would likely entrench major parties.

My biggest issue is the personalities involved with the party. Victor Kline in particular seems to enjoy being a Twitter personality and getting into ridiculous fights in the comments. There are other parties who spend less of their time centring parliamentary decisions as specific attacks of their party personally.
2022-05-09 01:21 pm

Danny Lim (Ungrouped Independent)

Danny Lim:

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/dannyandsmarty/

Danny Lim is the sandwich board peace activist guy. He’s well known for wandering the streets wearing a sandwich board about his current issue du jour, and for the fact a case over one of his billboards found the word “cunt” is speech not generally offensive to the community.

He's run for office a number of times, starting with Strathfield Local Council in 2008, where he was elected for a 2 year term. He’s previously run federally in 2016 (getting 465 votes) and for NSW state upper house in 2019 (receiving 644 votes).

In terms of policies, I was able to locate one or two documents.

Lim is upset about the Coalition government’s response to disasters and broken promises to the electorate. He wants lower taxes for workers, higher taxes for corporations, and a Basic Living Wage. He wants an ICAC, climate action and renewable energy, and enactment of Uluru Statement from the Heart. More funding for universal childcare, free dental on Medicare for disadvantaged Australians (not everyone), better pay rates, NBN upgrades for FTTP for all premises, and more funding for the ABC and SBS. He wants a Republic, reduce the voting age to 16, a Charter of Rights, and fixed 4 year federal parliamentary terms. Essentially, it’s a grab bag of one line left slogans.

Lim is harmless but also I cannot see any serious reason you’d vote for him in preference to any of the other centre-left socially liberal parties all over the ballot this election.
2022-05-09 01:28 pm

Julie Collins (Ungrouped Independent)

Julie Collins:

Website: https://www.juliecollinsnsw.com/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JulieCollinsNSW/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/juliecollinsnsw/

Julie Collins is a Ngunnawal woman living in Tamworth, running with the slogan “Sensible Solutions”. Her main hobbyhorse is the Family Law Court System and a bunch of right wing social views.

Collins is worried about the removal of children from families, which given her background is completely understandable. She also wants more protections for children in the Family Court system and doesn’t like expert witnesses. In terms of family and domestic violence, Collins is concerned the current systems are not doing enough for families in crisis. Her solutions are tougher sentencing for domestic violence, more support for reporting domestic violence, children not having orders to see family members convicted of domestic violence. Also she throws around the suggestion of chemical castration for repeat sex offenders against children.

Collins is anti-abortion and anti-euthanasia. She also wants more money for aged care and palliative care.

Collins is an anti-vaxxer, and your standard Covid protestor who is against vaccine mandates, lockdowns and border closures. She feels that COVID and border closures have divided the community and caused rifts in family relationships. She’s upset about the people who lost their jobs over not being vaccinated. Given they were mostly medical personnel and teachers, people who should be fully vaccinated in any case, this argument is remarkably unsympathetic. She’s more upset about the police brutality breaking up the protests than the fact that unvaccinated people are at higher risk of serious illness and death.

Collins is a TERF into gender essentialism (women’s bodies are different!). She doesn’t believe in trans people, gender fluidity, and is against Safe Schools. She thinks the Family Court shouldn’t be allowed to make orders in line with children’s wishes about transition (or about getting kids vaccinated, for that matter). Hate I have to say this, but this is really unacceptable, against the evidence and research, and is more likely to harm kids than help them.

Finally, she has an environment policy that is ambivalent to whether climate change exists. She is for less land clearing and cutting down trees and comments that whales help reduce greenhouse gases (okay, but that’s not really a solution on any scale). She also wants less plastic waste and more biodegradeable products so they don’t contaminate waterways and the sea. She doesn’t like water licences being held by mining companies when they could instead be held by farmers.

I’m sympathetic to Collins’ feelings about the Family Court system (which is generally considered to have issues by all parties involved, with the only upside in it being an improvement on every previous system we’ve had), but she is otherwise a right wing TERF, anti-vaxxer, anti-abortion and anti-euthanasia. These are all dealbreakers for me.
2022-05-09 01:29 pm

Warren Grzic (Ungrouped Independent)

Warren Grzic:

2016 Website: https://grzic2016.wordpress.com/about/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GrzicWarren/

Warren Grzic is based in the bush. He’s a serial candidate, having run as a federal ungrouped independent in 2016, and for NSW state and federally in 2019 for Sustainable Australia (not top of the ticket). This gives some idea of what his views are on various issues.

Grzic wants to raise Centrelink payments from $46 a day, but hasn’t put a target on how much he wants to raise them. Adorably, he also thinks this is a compelling reason to vote for him, rather than any of the other many parties championing this policy. He supports renewable energy and net-zero “done step-by-step, as one size does not fit all” (so I’m assuming he’s good with 2050), along with more sustainable development and better planning for this. He wants more manufacturing and industry based in Australia to expand the economy. He wants a Federal ICAC (with teeth).

He's previously run in 2016 on better public transport, more investment in rural and regional highways, and “simplifying the tax system”.

Look, without any further evidence, I would treat Grzic like a vote for Sustainable Australia. I haven’t seen him espouse any of their stable population positions while flicking through his facebook page, but I’m not willing to say he wouldn’t support such views, either.
2022-05-09 01:30 pm

Guitang Lu (Ungrouped Independent)

Guitang Lu:

Guitang Lu has been the hardest of the ungrouped independents to track down this election. They previously contested East Ward for the Hills Shire Council in December 2021, ending up with 472 votes total. They submitted a candidate statement for that election that said “Independent voice of the Hills for fairness and harmony in the multicultural community.” They also appear to be a migration agent based in Castle Hill.

Look, there’s essentially no information available here other than this general statement. I cannot really recommend voting for an individual where there is no available information. If you can’t manage to put up a website or a social media page for your campaign, you’re not really running for election.
2022-05-09 01:31 pm

William Lang (Ungrouped Independent)

William Lang:

Website: https://www.williamlaingindependent.com/

William Lang is probably most famous for winning $500,000 on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire and a number of subsequent game show appearances for things like Mastermind and The Chase. This means a lot of the search results on him cover this material – yes this is the same guy. It also gives some insight into his personality.

A quick peruse of his website tells you immediately that Lang is right wing. In fact, having drawn the last box of the ungrouped column, he jokes he’s the “extreme right” candidate! (Policy wise this isn’t the case, given some of the other parties running, but it’s definitely something to keep in mind). He spends a fair amount of time complaining about the “woke left”, if you need a tenor of his views.

Lang is campaigning on a couple of different points this year: Energy Security, Aged Care and Freedom of Expression.

In terms of energy policy, you’ll probably be shocked to hear that Lang doesn’t like renewable energy because we don’t have manufacturing capacity here and are reliant on Chinese imports. He draws an analogy with Russian gas sales. He therefore thinks aiming for net-zero is unethical, because we have local supplies of coal and gas which we can use instead (stating they’re ‘low emissions’ which is only true compared to brown coal). Basically, he wants local energy manufacture without any international imports. This reveals he’s clearly anti-globalist.

The aged care policy is more support for aged care services (truly, along with an ICAC, this has to be one of the ground level things everyone’s campaigns, both left and right, are talking about), and for the government to provide this support by spending more money and better regulation of the sector. No real direction to this other than ‘throw more money at it’.

The Freedom of Expression policy is your standard “people get told off for plain speaking these days” complaints. The examples he raises as persecution for free speech include the sort of poor right wing academics who end up losing their jobs for being outright flogs (Peter Ridd, Barry Spurr), an anti-lockdown campaigner Zoe Buhler, and Bill Leak getting rinsed for being an appallingly racist cartoonist. He’s also for Elon Musk buying twitter as he thinks the site moderation has a left-wing bias, and is for the sort of free speech so beloved of US folk yelling about their first amendment rights. Look, we do not have guaranteed free speech in Australia, and honestly none of these people listed are a good example of why we need it – they all held dangerous views and the general public being outraged by these views is unsurprising.

William Lang thinks being described as “far right” is good and a benefit to him. Let that guide where you put him on the ballot.
2022-05-09 04:24 pm

United Australia Party

United Australia Party

Website: https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/unitedausparty
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/UnitedAusParty

The United Australia Party are essentially the Clive Palmer Feelings Vehicle. Originally formed 2013, it is not a successor to the UAP of the 1930s and 1940s, which was a conservative Labor-Nationalist breakaway group and provided Menzies’ first prime ministership.

Being the Clive Palmer Feelings Vehicle, its policies tend to swing their focus quite wildly between elections. The most valuable assets they’ve probably provided Australia is Jacqui Lambie and endless billboards to deface. The least valuable assets they’ve provided include their habit of blanket saturation advertising and Clive Palmer.

Policies:

FREEDOM FREEDOM FREEDOM and promises to fix interest rate at a max of 3% for all mortgages for 5 years. That’s the UAP platform right now, from what I absorb via giant billboards and tv ads. Shockingly enough, I’m not supportive of either of these policies (also I’m not convinced they are achievable either). However, I’ve taken a look at the actual policy platform too.

UAP’s housing policy is a maximum 3% interest rates for all mortgages and $30,000 paid on home loans tax deductable each year. This is populist nonsense, a gigantic rort, and probably the most likely policy from any political party to send house prices even more stratospherically high. And of course, there is nothing here for renters – this is just making people who already have house mortgages have their houses accrue more value. I took a quick peek at what is currently being advertised as best interest rates (it’s around 2%), so I’d imagine a bunch of people are already paying around 3%.

Economic policies from UAP include a 15% export licence on iron ore to “repay the national debt” (oooh so why is this ok but a resource super profits tax of 40% isn’t, Palmer?). They want more ore and minerals processing in Australia to value ad before international sale. They are also calling for all superannuation to be invested in Australia: “Just like when John Curtin in World War 2 brought the troops back to save Australia, the United Australia Party will bring back a trillion dollars of Australian super back to Australia, to save Australia”. While this is some great nationalism, it’s considered ethically sound for managed funds to invest internationally. Also in nationalism, they want more support and labelling for Australians to buy Australian made products. UAP also want to build a nuclear power industry here.

In education policies, UAP want to abolish HECS debts. And let me admit, I am down for that, but this is astonishing as the only education policy. Nothing for childcare, primary or secondary education.

In tax policies, rather than increasing tax to fund all these policies, UAP instead want to decrease tax by up to 50% on second jobs (why second jobs? Income is income. This doesn’t make sense, given our tax system doesn’t quarantine payments by WHEN we earn the money; if you change employers during the year, does that then count as a second job for the lower tax rate? I can see all sorts of shenanigans). They want to abolish provisional tax for businesses and allow it to be paid at the end of the year (by my understanding provisional tax payments are intended to smooth the tax burden over the year and to also stop companies going bankrupt with giant tax debts as often). Also in terms of bankruptcy, UAP want businesses to be allowed to “trade out of difficulty”. According to UAP, the government are the main petitioners of bankruptcy and liquidation. To me this sounds like “let businesses run even further into the red, failing to pay their workers”. When a business goes bankrupt there is generally a reason why. They’re not paying for something (often their invoices, their workers and their tax). I don’t see why we should be trying to let them limp along into even more trouble.

UAP want to abolish fringe benefits tax. They want to introduce at 20% zonal tax concession for those living rurally, at least 200km from a capital city. Is this from the centre or the fringe of the city? UAP note huffily that this is legal and existed in the 1960s, but I have to say I can see this exploited by remote worker professionals to drop their tax rates, rather than assist regional and rural communities. Also, all populations make some compromises – an equal tax system is surely fairer than this.

Then we have the COVID cooker FREEDOM policies. You can probably recite these by now. No vaccine mandates or passports, no lockdowns, allow alternative medical treatment for COVID (yes this is the Ivermectin policy), abolish the National Cabinet (and I bet he doesn’t want COAG back either), stop social media censoring COVID deniers and antivaxxers (phrased as social media censoring “Australian political debate”). You know the stuff, all the protestor policies that are less relevant now.

Also in terms of FREEDOM, UAP want to exclude former ministers from being lobbyists, and are advocating for freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom from fear and freedom of association. In context, this really should read as “remove Section 18C on Racial Vilification” so that freedom of speech is as wide as possible.

Healthcare policies (that don’t involve the right to eat horse paste) are $40 billion in extra hospital funding. Gosh the UAP are amazing at announcing extra things they want to pay for while also wanting lower taxes. You can have one or the other. They also want to raise the old age pension by $180 per fortnight (but no other Centrelink payments). Veterans and spouses should all have access to gold cards and service pensions should be linked to total average earnings.

Finally, in terms of defence, the UAP dislike the French submarine deal and are calling the abandonment of the deal a triumph for their policy. They want nuclear subs for protection.

Is this party trying to kill me?

The COVID denial and promotion of dangerous cures is the issue here.

Is this party trying to harm me?

UAP want nuclear power and nuclear submarines. They also are really into radical interpretations of freedom of speech.

Conclusion:

The UAP are populists whose policies veer sharply around to pick up whatever they think might net them some disaffected voters. There’s a lot of random single policies here that would cost a lot in tax revenue, while the party also demands lower taxes. I think the thing that worries me the most, alongside the known connections to the Convoy to Canberra crowd and other extremists, is the support to allow companies who are bankrupt to keep trading. Bankruptcy exists for a reason and is there to resolve situation where there really is no further way out. Letting companies dig deeper holes and go further into debt doesn’t seem advisable.